38 dead after 7.7 magnitude earthquake strikes off coast of Indonesia

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

• Did not happen 75% Confirmed No-Tsunami

  Despite the initial early warning, the tsunami waves fail to materialize or reach dangerous levels at coastal tide stations across Indonesia. Authorities issue all-clear notices within hours, and the focus shifts entirely to earthquake damage assessment rather than emergency evacuation.

  Watch for: Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) lifts all tsunami alerts · Tide gauges in Jakarta and Surabaya record no significant wave height increase

• Did not happen 15% Minor Coastal Flooding

  A modest tsunami, smaller than initially feared, breaches coastal defenses in vulnerable offshore islands, causing limited flooding but no major loss of life beyond the seismic casualties. Local governments declare minor disaster states for specific affected districts.

  Watch for: Local news reports of 2-meter waves inundating low-lying areas in Sulawesi · Emergency services rescue dozens of residents from flooded coastal villages

• Confirmed 8% Aftershock Crisis

  Watch for: USGS confirms a 7.2 magnitude aftershock in the epicenter region · International Red Cross halts ground operations citing structural instability

  • Matched 2nd earthquake hits Indonesia following powerful magnitude 7.7 quake

• Did not happen 2% Political Blame Game

  Controversy erupts when leaked data suggests local authorities ignored earlier seismic indicators prior to the quake. Opposition leaders demand immediate cabinet resignations, paralyzing the central government's response coordination for the remainder of the two-week window.

  Watch for: Indonesian parliament votes to investigate BNPB leadership conduct · Regional governor files formal complaint against national disaster management agency

Generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q5_K_M.gguf on 2026-08-15. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-16. See how these forecasts score.