Will US or China win the next war? That’s the wrong question to ask
Who will win the next war? That is the question posed on the cover of the latest Foreign Affairs magazine which explores, among other things, the US-China military and technological rivalry. At its core is a clash of strategic philosophies between the US-led order and China’s world view, which has propelled the latter’s rise to the world’s second great power. The magazine’s contributors reflect a deeply ingrained Western strategic tradition, rooted in liberal realism, that says that the United...
Where: China
Exact coordinates
china: 35.860, 104.200
Read it at South China Morning Post See this on the map
What might happen next? AI-generated
These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.
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Awaiting deadline 50% Technological Decoupling & Strategic Stability
The US and China deepen economic and technological separation, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while establishing strict military communication hotlines to prevent accidental escalation. This 'cold peace' solidifies two distinct spheres of influence without direct kinetic conflict, as both sides prioritize internal stability over expansion.
Watch for: US Treasury imposes new restrictions on AI chip exports to Chinese firms · Pentagon and PLA sign bilateral agreement on naval encounter protocols
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Awaiting deadline 30% Proxy Conflict in Global South
Rather than direct confrontation, the rivalry manifests through intense competition for infrastructure contracts and political allegiance in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Both nations arm and fund opposing factions in regional disputes, creating localized hotspots that test diplomatic de-escalation efforts but stop short of great power war.
Watch for: Chinese naval vessels dock at a new port in a Pacific Island nation · US announces major military aid package to a Southeast Asian partner
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Awaiting deadline 15% Diplomatic Thaw via Climate/Health Cooperation
A shared crisis, such as a major pandemic wave or climate-induced disaster, forces temporary cooperation between Washington and Beijing. High-level summits yield limited but symbolic agreements on global public goods, easing immediate tensions and creating a brief window of reduced rhetorical hostility.
Watch for: US and China co-host an international climate finance summit in Geneva · Joint statement on global health security issued by both foreign ministries
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Awaiting deadline 5% Miscalculation-Induced Naval Incident
A sudden, unplanned encounter between US and Chinese military assets in a contested zone leads to a dangerous exchange of fire or a forced interception, sparking a brief crisis. Although both governments work quickly to de-escalate, the incident triggers a sharp, immediate spike in global market volatility and military readiness levels.
Watch for: US Department of Defense confirms collision between US and Chinese vessels · China issues formal diplomatic protest over 'unsafe approaches' by US Navy
Generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q5_K_M.gguf
on 2026-08-01. Checked against later coverage after 2027-07-27.
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