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Wayward SpaceX rocket to slam into moon, leave 16-foot deep crater

The impact will not be visible to the naked eye, but photos are expected to come from a lunar satellite at a later time.

Published by Home - CBSNews.com

Where: China, Japan, United States, Boston

Exact coordinates

china: 35.860, 104.200
japan: 36.200, 138.250
united states: 37.090, -95.710
boston: 42.360, -71.060

Read it at CBSNews.com See this on the map

A rocket launches into the night sky with bright fire and smoke.
A rocket launches into the night sky with bright fire and smoke. AI-written description This image does not appear to show the event — The image description shows a rocket launching vertically, which is unrelated to the headline describing a rocket slamming into the moon.
What might happen next? AI-generated

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

  • Awaiting deadline 45% Routine Scientific Confirmation

    The impact occurs as a planned, non-critical test of a new upper-stage system. Subsequent satellite imagery confirms the crater's size and composition, leading to a standard academic publication in a journal like *Nature*. The incident is treated purely as a successful, albeit messy, engineering milestone for SpaceX.

    Watch for: NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter releases high-resolution imagery showing a new, small impact scar. · A press release from SpaceX announces successful testing of the 'Starship-X' upper stage, citing minor unplanned events.

  • Awaiting deadline 30% Increased Regulatory Scrutiny

    The impact sparks an international review regarding the safety protocols of large private launches near celestial bodies. Governments in the US and EU demand greater oversight on space debris and planetary impact risk from commercial entities. This leads to new licensing requirements for future missions.

    Watch for: The US Congress holds a bipartisan hearing on 'Off-World Object Safety Standards'. · The European Space Agency releases a formal statement recommending mandatory impact impact mitigation procedures for private entities.

  • Awaiting deadline 15% Geopolitical Tension via Resource Claims

    While the crater itself isn't resource-rich, its location becomes politically significant if it falls near a region of contested lunar interest. A rival nation, perhaps China, uses the event to claim sovereign interest in the 'impact zone' for future potential resource mapping, leading to diplomatic friction.

    Watch for: A state-owned space agency from a geopolitical rival issues a joint announcement regarding 'monitoring activities' near the impact coordinates. · A US Department of State official issues a public advisory regarding international norms for celestial body exploration.

  • Awaiting deadline 10% Unexpected Scientific Discovery (Counter-Trajectory)

    Contrary to expectations of just a crater, the impact triggers a unique geological event. Analysis of the ejecta reveals unexpected concentrations of rare isotopes or ancient lunar material, leading to a sudden, highly publicized breakthrough in planetary science.

    Watch for: A scientific paper published in a top-tier journal describes the 'unusual isotopic signature' found within the impact ejecta. · SpaceX CEO hosts a live, global press conference dedicated solely to the unexpected scientific yield of the lunar impact.

Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf on 2026-08-04. Checked against later coverage after 2027-01-31. See how these forecasts score.

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