WATCH: RZP will not ally with Ben-Gvir in 2026 elections, Smotrich tells 'Post'
“I think that right now the Religious Zionist public can and should run on its own as a big, strong, significant party,” Smotrich told the Post.
Where: Israel
Exact coordinates
israel: 31.050, 34.850
Read it at The Jerusalem Post See this on the map
What might happen next? AI-generated
These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.
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Awaiting deadline 55% Electoral Alliance Formation
Despite Smotrich's current stance, internal pressure from RZP rank-and-file voters and strategic calculations regarding the electoral threshold lead to secret negotiations with Ben-Gvir’s party. A formal joint list is announced, combining their seats to guarantee parliamentary survival and influence.
Watch for: RZP and Otzma Yehudit announce a unified candidate list for the upcoming elections · Smotrich publicly endorses Ben-Gvir as part of a joint ticket
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Awaiting deadline 30% Consolidation of Independent RZP
Smotrich successfully rallies the right-wing base behind a standalone RZP party, arguing that allying with Ben-Gvir dilutes their moderate economic message. The party secures a strong, independent mandate without needing coalition partners from the far-right.
Watch for: RZP announces a standalone slate of candidates excluding Ben-Gvir allies · Polls show RZP surpassing the electoral threshold without alliance
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Awaiting deadline 10% Internal Split and Factionalism
A significant faction of RZP MKs disagrees with Smotrich’s refusal to ally with Ben-Gvir, leading to a public split. These dissident MKs leave RZP to form a new micro-party aligned with Ben-Gvir, fracturing the right-wing vote.
Watch for: Two RZP MKs announce resignation from the party to join Ben-Gvir’s list · RZP leadership expels members for violating party discipline on alliance
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Awaiting deadline 5% Premature Coalition Talks Collapse
In a counter-intuitive move, Ben-Gvir publicly insults Smotrich’s independence, claiming the RZP is too weak to stand alone. This forces Smotrich to double down on his independence, but triggers a media firestorm that alienates moderate right-wing voters, causing RZP support to plummet in immediate polling.
Watch for: Ben-Gvir tweets that RZP cannot survive without Otzma Yehudit · RZP announces it will not enter any coalition led by Ben-Gvir
Generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q5_K_M.gguf
on 2026-08-13. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-20.
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