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WATCH: President Trump sued over selling early access to social media posts

ABC News' Mike Dobuski discusses the latest on who is suing the president and prediction markets expert Robin Hanson shares more on the intersection of politics and prediction markets.

Published by ABC News

Where: Hawaii, Iran, Los Angeles, Oklahoma, South Korea, Kentucky, Indiana, Ukraine

Exact coordinates

hawaii: 19.900, -155.580
iran: 32.430, 53.690
los angeles: 34.050, -118.240
oklahoma: 35.560, -97.520
south korea: 35.910, 127.770
kentucky: 37.840, -84.270
indiana: 40.270, -86.130
ukraine: 48.380, 31.170

Read it at ABC News See this on the map

A man speaks at a podium in a room with a White House backdrop while people raise their hands.
A man speaks at a podium in a room with a White House backdrop while people raise their hands. AI-written description
What might happen next? AI-generated

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

  • Awaiting deadline 40% Immediate Legal Dismissal

    The lawsuit is swiftly dismissed by a federal judge due to grounds of executive immunity or lack of standing. This allows the President to resume social media operations without immediate legal interference.

    Watch for: Federal judge issues ruling stating 'lack of standing' in Trump lawsuit · President issues a public statement thanking the court for dismissing the suit

  • Awaiting deadline 30% Negotiated Settlement

    The parties agree to a mediated resolution outside of court to avoid protracted litigation and negative press cycles. This likely involves a specific concession regarding future platform usage.

    Watch for: ABC News reports signing of a 'mutual resolution agreement' between the President and plaintiffs · Lawyers for the President announce a confidential settlement agreement

  • Awaiting deadline 20% Court Ruling Against the President

    The court rules against the President, finding that the sale of early access constitutes an actionable misuse of office or platform privileges. This forces immediate operational changes.

    Watch for: Court releases ruling stating 'President violated terms of use/law regarding early access' · President's legal team announces appeal filing within 72 hours

  • Awaiting deadline 10% Strategic Delay Tactic

    The legal teams engage in procedural maneuvering, filing extensive motions to delay the substantive hearing until after an election or major political event. This stalls the immediate outcome.

    Watch for: ABC News reports motion filed by defense seeking 'adjournment until next fiscal quarter' · Named official (e.g., Attorney General) issues statement regarding 'procedural backlog' in the case

Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf on 2026-08-17. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-24. See how these forecasts score.

ForecastGeo shows the headline and summary published by the newsroom and places the story on a map. The full article lives at the source.