US planning to block Abbas from addressing UN next month, sources tell 'Post'

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

• Awaiting deadline 35% Immediate Diplomatic Breakthrough

  Abbas's appeal to Turkey successfully gains traction, leading to back-channel US engagement. The US, seeking stability before the UN session, agrees to delay or allow a limited address by Abbas.

  Watch for: The State Department issues a joint statement with the UN regarding scheduled speakers for the next session. · A high-level meeting is reported between US and Jordanian/Palestinian diplomats in the week prior to the UN address.

• Awaiting deadline 30% Stalemate and Formal Block

  The US maintains its policy stance, and Abbas's appeal via Turkey fails to shift the diplomatic landscape. The US proceeds with blocking the address as originally planned.

  Watch for: The US delegation officially registers an objection to Abbas's intended address at the UN. · Abbas's office releases a public statement confirming the cancellation of the planned UN speech.

• Awaiting deadline 25% Regional De-escalation Pivot

  Instead of focusing solely on the UN block, the US and regional players agree to a minor, tangible confidence-building measure on a separate issue, temporarily sidelining the Abbas/UN dispute.

  Watch for: A bilateral agreement between the US and Israel is announced concerning water sharing or security cooperation. · US and Palestinian delegation leaders participate in a joint regional security forum meeting.

• Awaiting deadline 10% Unforeseen Political Rupture (Counter-intuitive)

  The internal political pressure on the US side reaches a breaking point, leading to an unexpected unilateral reversal of the block, perhaps due to domestic political shifts or pressure from a third party.

  Watch for: A prominent US Senator or Congressional committee chair announces support for allowing the address. · The US Embassy in Amman releases an uncharacteristic public endorsement of Palestinian representation at the UN.

Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf on 2026-08-20. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-25. See how these forecasts score.