UK petrol prices expected to rise to highest this year as US attacks Iran – business live
Live, rolling coverage as the AA says average petrol prices could rise above 159.7p per litre mark set in May Another group of bankers will be looking forward to a bump in bonuses this year, after NatWest group grew the payout pool after a near 30% surge in quarterly profits. The high street lender said pre-tax profit jumped 29% to £2.3bn between April and June compared with the same period last year, after a jump in customer deposits, mortgage lending, and better economic conditions reduced the…
Places named in this report: Iran
Exact coordinates
iran: 32.430, 53.690
Read it at The Guardian See this on the map
What might happen next? AI-generated
These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.
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Unresolved 45% Prolonged Price Volatility
Petrol prices remain elevated above 159.7p per litre as US-Iran tensions persist without de-escalation, causing sustained supply chain disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The Bank of England faces increased pressure to maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation driven by energy costs, while retail spending contracts. NatWest reports continued strong quarterly profits due to increased mortgage applications as consumers rush to lock in rates before potential hikes.
Watch for: UK average petrol price exceeds 165p per litre in August · Bank of England holds interest rate steady at 5.25% · Iran closes Strait of Hormuz for 48 hours
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Unresolved 25% Diplomatic De-escalation
Behind-the-scenes talks mediated by Oman lead to a temporary ceasefire and the reopening of key shipping lanes, causing immediate drops in global oil futures. UK petrol prices fall back to 150p per litre as market panic subsides, relieving pressure on household budgets and consumer confidence. NatWest announces a smaller-than-expected bonus pool as profit forecasts are adjusted downward following the stabilization of the economic outlook.
Watch for: Oman announces successful mediation talks between Washington and Tehran · UK petrol prices drop below 155p per litre within 10 days · NatWest revises annual profit guidance downward by 5%
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Unresolved 20% Strategic Reserve Release
The US leads a coordinated release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves alongside European allies to artificially suppress oil prices and mitigate domestic inflation ahead of the US election. While global crude prices remain high, UK fuel prices stabilize near the 159p mark, preventing a full cost-of-living crisis. The banking sector sees mixed results, with NatWest maintaining profit growth but facing increased scrutiny over lending practices in volatile markets.
Watch for: US Department of Energy announces joint SPR release with G7 nations · Global Brent crude falls 10% within 48 hours of announcement · UK inflation rate remains flat at 2.2% for the third consecutive month
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Unresolved 10% Regional Conflict Expansion
US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites trigger a broader regional conflict, causing a severe supply shock that pushes oil prices above $120 per barrel. UK petrol prices spike past 170p per litre, leading to widespread strikes by transport workers and a sharp contraction in GDP. NatWest reports a sudden surge in loan defaults and freezes bonus payouts as the bank shifts capital to preserve liquidity amid the global economic downturn.
Watch for: Iran launches missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq · UK petrol prices breach 170p per litre · NatWest suspends dividend payments and bonus distributions
Generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q5_K_M.gguf
on 2026-07-31. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-14.
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