Trump’s net approval is near record low, with Democrats favoured to gain control of Congress at midterms
Since the Iran war resumed, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped back, and he’s now at a near record low below -20, putting him below other past presidents at this point in their terms. Midterm elections will be held on November 3. Democrats are the slight favourites to gain control of both chambers of Congress. They lead the generic ballot by 6.7 points. While the US stock market has continued to surge, there was a weak jobs report last Friday. Trump’s ratings In analyst Nate Silver’s…
Places named in this report: Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska
Exact coordinates
texas: 31.970, -99.900
ohio: 40.420, -82.910
iowa: 41.880, -93.100
michigan: 44.310, -85.600
alaska: 64.200, -152.490
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What might happen next? AI-generated
These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.
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Unresolved 35% Democratic Sweep and Policy Pivot
Democrats win a majority in both chambers, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with Trump's approval ratings and economic concerns. The new Congress immediately focuses on fiscal relief and targeted anti-inflation measures, signaling a pivot away from recent hawkish policies. The market reacts with a short-term dip as policy uncertainty settles.
Watch for: A joint session of Congress is called by a Democratic majority on November 5th. · The Speaker of the House is announced as a Democrat by November 7th.
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Unresolved 30% Republican Hold, Economic Rally
Republicans narrowly retain control, driven by strong support from the AI tech sector and an unexpected consumer spending surge. Despite weak initial jobs reports, a significant positive economic revision is released, convincing voters to stick with the current administration. Trump's approval stabilizes above -15.
Watch for: The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues a revised, significant upward revision to the June jobs report by November 10th. · A major Republican campaign official issues a statement claiming 'economic momentum is irreversible' by November 14th.
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Unresolved 25% Stalemate and Policy Gridlock
Neither side achieves a clear majority, resulting in a razor-thin balance in the Senate and a fractured House. Key legislative efforts regarding trade or immigration stall immediately as leadership scrambles to build cross-party coalitions. The focus shifts entirely to procedural maneuvering rather than policy wins.
Watch for: Senate leadership announces a mandatory, multi-week procedural vote before any major legislation is scheduled for a floor vote by November 15th. · A named committee chair, previously partisan, is confirmed to lead a bipartisan subcommittee by November 12th.
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Unresolved 10% Trump Approval Rebound via Geopolitical Shift (Counter-Intuitive)
A sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough occurs regarding the Iran situation, which unexpectedly rallies Trump's base and boosts his approval rating above -18. This positive sentiment offsets economic worries just enough to prevent a Democratic sweep. The market experiences a sharp, brief rally focused on perceived stability.
Watch for: The State Department releases a joint communiqué announcing a new, substantive diplomatic agreement with Iranian proxies by November 7th. · A poll from a major national research firm shows Trump's net approval rising to -17.5 by November 14th.
Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf
on 2026-08-12. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-26.
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