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Prediction markets and sports betting: How this UK exchange is trying to do both in the U.S.

Smarkets is entering the U.S. prediction market race but also applying to run as a sportsbook within states amid regulatory uncertainty at the federal level.

Published by CNBC

Where: Indiana, Illinois, New York, Iowa, Michigan, Ireland, Sweden

Exact coordinates

indiana: 40.270, -86.130
illinois: 40.630, -89.400
new york: 40.710, -74.010
iowa: 41.880, -93.100
michigan: 44.310, -85.600
ireland: 53.140, -7.690
sweden: 60.130, 18.640

Read it at CNBC See this on the map

An office lobby with a neon Smarkets sign, a black sofa, and indoor plants.
An office lobby with a neon Smarkets sign, a black sofa, and indoor plants. AI-written description
What might happen next? AI-generated

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

  • Awaiting deadline 40% Regulatory Stalling

    Smarkets faces immediate pushback from federal regulators who deny the dual-application strategy, forcing the company to withdraw its sportsbook license pending clarification. The SEC or CFTC issues a public statement questioning the legality of operating both markets simultaneously without specific congressional guidance.

    Watch for: Federal regulators issue a formal cease-and-desist or inquiry letter to Smarkets regarding its dual licensing application.

  • Awaiting deadline 30% Strategic Withdrawal

    Citing regulatory uncertainty and the high cost of compliance, Smarkets voluntarily withdraws its sportsbook application to focus exclusively on the prediction market segment, signaling a retreat from the broader gambling market. The company issues a press release announcing the pivot to avoid potential legal entanglements.

    Watch for: Smarkets submits a formal withdrawal notice for its sportsbook license applications in multiple states.

  • Awaiting deadline 20% Targeted State Approval

    Rather than receiving federal clearance, Smarkets secures provisional approval from a single, tech-forward state (such as New York or New Jersey) for its prediction market platform, treating the sportsbook license as a secondary, parallel track. This sets a precedent for state-by-state regulatory fragmentation.

    Watch for: A specific state gaming commission grants Smarkets a conditional license for prediction markets only.

  • Awaiting deadline 10% Counter-Regulatory Pivot

    Contrary to expectations of regulatory compliance, Smarkets announces a partnership with a major sports league to launch an unofficial 'futures market' that operates in a legal gray area, betting on the ambiguity of federal laws rather than seeking explicit permission. This aggressive move draws immediate condemnation from traditional betting operators.

    Watch for: Smarkets announces a partnership with a sports entity to launch a futures prediction product without explicit federal or state sports betting licensing.

Generated by Qwen3.6-35B-A3B-UD-Q5_K_M.gguf on 2026-08-15. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-25. See how these forecasts score.

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