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Data centers, crypto, and tax revisions take center stage in Tuesday primaries

Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska is facing a serious challenge from former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.

Published by CNBC

Places named in this report: New York

Exact coordinates

new york: 40.710, -74.010

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A woman with dark hair and glasses smiling while holding onto a railing. AI-written description
What might happen next? AI-generated

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

  • Unresolved 55% Primary Concession

    The immediate pressure from Mary Peltola's campaign proves too strong for Senator Sullivan to maintain a unified base. Sullivan publicly announces a concession to Peltola, citing the need for a more progressive voice in the upcoming election cycle.

    Watch for: Sen. Sullivan officially withdraw from the Republican primary race. · Peltola announces a unified front with local GOP officials.

  • Unresolved 25% Republican Unity Push

    The established party apparatus successfully rallies the conservative base behind the incumbent. A series of high-profile endorsements from national conservative leaders marginalize the challenger's appeal.

    Watch for: A major national Republican figure (e.g., a Senate leader) publicly endorses Dan Sullivan. · Mary Peltola announces a change in primary filing status or drops her campaign.

  • Unresolved 15% Policy Standoff

    Both candidates ignore the personal rivalry and pivot sharply to the policy issues mentioned in the primary, such as crypto regulation or data center taxes. A joint televised debate focuses entirely on these technical policy differences.

    Watch for: A joint policy town hall is announced featuring both candidates. · Both candidates release detailed white papers specifically addressing crypto regulation in Alaska.

  • Unresolved 5% Unconventional Alliance (Counter-Trajectory)

    Against all odds, Peltola and Sullivan agree to a temporary, pragmatic alliance to defeat a more extreme third-party candidate or an incumbent from another party. They agree to a 'co-endorsed' strategy for the next round of elections.

    Watch for: A joint press release is issued by Sullivan and Peltola declaring 'cooperation on Alaskan interests'. · Both candidates appear on a news program discussing 'bipartisan solutions' to data tax issues.

Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf on 2026-08-18. Checked against later coverage after 2026-08-25. See how these forecasts score.

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