Caap to airmen: Avoid flying near Mayon following eruption

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

• Awaiting deadline 45% Immediate De-escalation

  PHIVOLCS issues a downgrade in alert level to Yellow due to the cessation of eruptive activity, allowing CAAP to lift the Notice to Airmen and resume normal flight operations near Mayon. Local authorities declare the eruption has subsided sufficiently for residents to return to evacuation zones.

  Watch for: PHIVOLCS issues a new alert level bulletin indicating a downgrade from Orange/Red · CAAP issues a second Notam rescinding the initial warning or stating that airspace is clear · Local government officials in Albay announce the lifting of evacuation orders

• Awaiting deadline 30% Persistent Activity and Extended Closures

  Mayon continues to emit low-level ash and steam, keeping the alert level at Orange or Red. CAAP maintains the restricted airspace, leading to flight diversifications and delays in regional air traffic as monitoring agencies assess ongoing risk.

  Watch for: PHIVOLCS reports sustained ash plumes exceeding 1,000 meters for several consecutive days · CAAP extends the exclusion zone radius or duration of the Notam beyond its initial issuance · Airline cancellations are reported in regional news outlets tied to Mayon activity

• Awaiting deadline 15% Major Escalation

  A sudden increase in seismicity and volcanic unrest triggers a major explosive eruption, forcing CAAP to extend the exclusion zone significantly. PHIVOLCS issues a mandatory evacuation order for all areas within 8-10 km of the crater rim due to pyroclastic flow danger.

  Watch for: PHIVOLCS upgrades the alert level from Orange/Red to Red (highest) · CAAP issues a new Notam extending the exclusion zone to cover a wider radius · News reports confirm mandatory evacuations of specific barangays in Albay

• Awaiting deadline 10% False Alarm/Silent Dormancy

  The initial eruption is determined to be a precursor event that does not lead to further activity. Monitoring data shows no significant changes in magma volume or seismicity, leading to a rapid de-escalation of the threat.

  Watch for: PHIVOLCS issues a statement stating 'no change' or 'normal' activity levels · CAAP immediately rescinds the Notam without further extensions · Local officials state that there is no need for evacuation despite initial precautionary measures

Generated by qwen3.8-flash-next-q2_0 on 2026-10-30. Checked against later coverage after 2026-11-02. See how these forecasts score.