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As Iceland votes on the EU, which countries could be next to join?

Iceland will go to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to resume talks on EU membership. In case of a “yes” win, Iceland will become the 11th country aspiring to join the bloc. Claudia Delpero looks at the states queuing up to join the bloc.

Published by The Local (France)

Where: Georgia, Turkey, Albania, France, Switzerland, Ukraine, Brussels, Germany, Norway, Russia

Exact coordinates

georgia: 32.170, -82.910
turkey: 38.960, 35.240
albania: 41.150, 20.170
france: 46.230, 2.210
switzerland: 46.820, 8.230
ukraine: 48.380, 31.170
brussels: 50.850, 4.350
germany: 51.170, 10.450
norway: 60.470, 8.470
russia: 61.520, 105.320

Read it at The Local (France) See this on the map

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As Iceland votes on the EU, which countries could be next to join?
What might happen next? AI-generated

These scenarios are written by an AI language model from the headline and summary above. They are not predictions from the newsroom, and they are not evidence of anything. Every one is given a deadline and checked against later coverage, and the score is published on the ledger — including the ones that miss.

  • Unresolved 40% Iceland Rejects EU Membership

    The Icelandic public votes against resuming EU talks, citing concerns over sovereignty. This rejection immediately stalls the entire accession pipeline for the EU.

    Watch for: Iceland's parliamentary speaker formally announces the decision to halt EU membership negotiations following the election.

  • Unresolved 30% EU Welcomes New Aspirant

    Iceland votes 'yes' and formally commits to the process. Immediately following the result, the EU Commission announces a bilateral meeting to discuss the next batch of candidates, likely including Norway or Switzerland.

    Watch for: The European Commission issues a press release confirming the immediate commencement of the EU accession roadmap review with Iceland.

  • Unresolved 20% Stalled Momentum/Internal EU Gridlock

    Even if Iceland votes 'yes,' key member states express significant reservations about the pace or terms, leading to an internal EU bureaucratic freeze.

    Watch for: A high-level meeting of the EU Council concludes with a statement noting 'procedural delays' regarding the next accession candidate review.

  • Unresolved 10% Unexpected Bloc Pivot (Counter-Intuitive)

    Despite the polling, a sudden, unexpected shift in domestic politics leads Iceland to issue a 'no comment' stance, effectively pausing the decision until internal political alignments shift.

    Watch for: The Icelandic Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues a statement citing 'indefinite internal deliberation' regarding the EU vote outcome.

Generated by gemma-4-E4B-it-qat-UD-Q4_K_XL.gguf on 2026-08-25. Checked against later coverage after 2026-09-01. See how these forecasts score.

ForecastGeo shows the headline and summary published by the newsroom and places the story on a map. The full article lives at the source.